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Weekend Weather

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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby Andy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:43 pm

Oh, well, I didn't mean to impose, but thank you. I'll have to be your driver sometimes, after all the times you helped us out. This weekend I'll be up in CO for a wedding, but otherwise I would have loved to come down. Some of the other fellas up here may be up for it. Are all the sites down there still open? Mag rim, etc? We ended up going to Gunnison and villa grove, which worked out pretty well.

-Andy
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:06 am

Hello again, Andy. Yes, all of our sites are open for flying - no fire danger closures at this point. What the weather does is a good question - I'll post it up tomorrow. I hope to fly with you again soon!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:54 am

Hi, folks. This weekend should be flyable, but it'll be hot and not the best. Our high temperatures will be about 100 F all through the weekend, and the chances for rain are pretty slim. Winds are mostly west. On Friday they are strong west for most of the area, especially Deming, but moderate in Alamogordo. On Saturday a little lighter, and some northwest component for some of the day. On Sunday, moderate west in Deming, light and variable with some east winds over the rest of the area. So, my foot launched flying recommendations: Dry Canyon and La Luz on Friday and Saturday. Agave Hill and Nelson's Launch might work on Saturday. On Sunday you might try the Little Floridas, but get there early. Towing at the Sod Farms should be good on Saturday, and challenging on Sunday as the wind direction keeps shifting. In all circumstances, be ready for some turbulence, and plenty of heat and sunshine. Good luck if you go out, and fly safe!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:38 pm

FRIDAY, JULY 6 through SUNDAY, JULY 8, 2018:
Conditions are edging towards a (very welcome) rainy season at last. We might not get any rain this weekend, but models show it coming later next week. We can, however, expect temperatures to be a little less oppressive this weekend: Low 90's Fahrenheit (about 35 Celsius). Chances for rain are not zero, but not very high, either. Winds, though, are showing more and more the classic flow for this season: They are mostly from the east. Expect moderate to strong (15 mph) east winds on Friday for most of our area; the exception is Alamogordo, where light west/southwest winds are forecast. On Saturday the same kind of direction, but not as strong. On Sunday, winds should be light south-southeast in Alamogordo, and light east-southeast for El Paso, Las Cruces and Deming. For foot-launched flying I recommend Dry Canyon for all three days. Also Torrey Paso and Anapra. And maybe there's good flying to be had at the Sod Farms; the wind direction should be fairly steady, out of te east. Good luck if you go, and keep an eye out for overdevelopment. Be safe!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:41 am

FRIDAY, JULY 13 through SUNDAY, JULY 15:
The rainy season is here! We will finally see the desert get green; we'll also have to take precipitation into account in our flying calculations. This weekend looks like a wet one, but not necessarily unsoarable. For one thing, the jetstream is leaving us alone for a while. For another, it's not rainy everywhere, nor all the time. It looks like we will have light southwest winds throughout our area this weekend, with high temperatures around 90 degrees F (quite a nice change from June's 105's). On Friday it looks like we could get afternoon rains in Alamogordo and Las Cruces, so I'd say that Dry Canyon, La Luz and Magdalena Rim are a bad bet. (I'll be glad to be wrong on that!) On the other hand, El Paso and Deming look sunnier, so Agave Hill, Nelson's Launch and the Little Floridas might work OK. On Saturday it's just about the same situation. Sunday looks to have afternoon thunderstorms throughout our area, with all the associated turbulence, so it might not be a good day at any of our sites. But, who knows? It could clear off and be just great, by then. I'd leave the Dry Canyon road alone, though - driving it when it's muddy is no good for us or for the road. If you go out this weekend, have fun, and be very wary of overdevelopment and thunderheads forming - they can come up awfully fast when the conditions hit that trigger point. Keep in touch if you go out - I'd be up for a flight if the day looks good. And let's think about a quarterly meeting of the RGSA on July 28th - maybe here in Las Cruces? (Bill says his house his available, and Terry exemplifies that Midwestern hospitality...) Fly safe!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:18 am

FRIDAY, JULY 20 through SUNDAY, JULY 22:
The current monsoon season is on vacation. Our weather this week, in summary (and very summery it is!) is hot, dry, and pretty much calm. No rain to be seen, high temperatures 100 to 105 degrees F (that's 37 to 41 degrees C for the real world) and winds light and variable. For Friday, it'll be light south-southwest in Alamogordo and Deming, and light south-southeast elsewhere. Probably your best bet for a flight that day is Dry Canyon. On Saturday again light S-SW in Alamogordo, light SE everywhere else. Maybe towing at the Exit 116 road west of Las Cruces will work, or Dry Canyon again. On Sunday we still get light S-SW in Alamogordo (Dry Canyon), light E-SE in El Paso, where Anapra might just work for PG's. Las Cruces will see light east winds that day, Deming light S-SE, and so I don't see any flying possibilities there. I wouldn't worry about overdevelopment this weekend, but be careful about the heat. I'm probably not able to go out this weekend, but keep in touch if you get a flight. To misquote Thomas Paine, "These are the times that fry men's soles..."
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:36 am

FRIDAY, JULY 27 through SUNDAY, JULY 29 2018:
This is not likely to be an epic flying weekend, I'm afraid. As is typical for this time of summer, winds are almost nonexistent. The temperatures won't be as brutal as last weekend's; we'll see highs around 100 F (about 38 C), but mostly around the upper 90's. There is a slight chance of rain of Saturday and Sunday, then more possibilities through the week after that. No jetstream. Friday, expect winds to be light SE all over our area. Dry Canyon may be a possibility, and towing at the Exit 116 road west of Las Cruces. On Saturday, light and variable all over the area. Again, Dry Canyon might be your best bet; the thermals bubbling up the face can provide enough wind for a launch, and then some lift. Nothing else looks very good that day, including Magdalena Rim - I expect light and variable there. On Sunday, light and variable all over. It might be light west in Deming, so if you'd like a sled ride at the Little Floridas, that's a good opportunity. This may be a weekend to get those household obligations done, to free you up for better conditions in the future - and, of course, to attend our barbecue and club meeting at Bill &Terry Cummings' house in Las Cruces, about 7:00 pm on Saturday. I'll hope to see you all then and there!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:14 am

FRIDAY, AUGUST 10 through SUNDAY, AUGUST 12, 2018:
This weekend might be even less optimal than last weekend. But at least the temperatures will be kinder, in the 80 to 90 degree range instead of 100+. This is mainly due to expected rains cooling things down. Friday and Saturday are possible rain days; on Sunday the moisture moves on east into Texas and we start getting higher temperatures again. Winds? Well, the jetstream certainly won't be a factor for the next few days. But that also means that on the ground there really isn't any wind. On Friday, everything is light south and southeast for our area. The only good site we have for that direction is the Exit 116 tow road, and I think it's going to be too light to tempt anyone. On Saturday the winds go a little more eastward. It could be as high as 8-10 mph in El Paso, though, which then makes Anapra a site to check out, at least for PG's. On Sunday I expected stronger winds, as the rains move out, but not this time - it looks like really light E/SE winds are the rule for all our area then. Maybe Dry Canyon will be launchable, and there could be some good thermals if so - or, you might get flushed, the way I was a week ago. (Zac Majors and his friends had great flights that day - skill and good timing can sure make a difference!) I think that on Sunday, with clear skies, towing at the Sod Farms can be a good way to get some airtime - the winds are not going to make much of a difference that day, and we should be done with the rain by then. In summary, this weekend looks like a fairly typical summer pattern for us, here in the desert southwest, and that doesn't auger well for good flying. Be patient... If you do go out for some flying, let me know how it goes!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:42 pm

FRIDAY, AUGUST 10 2018 through SUNDAY, AUGUST 12 2018:
It sure looks like another typical summer weekend in the southwest. Afternoon thunderstorms are a possibility on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will show highs of 90 to 95 F (33 C, for metric folks) and winds will be light. On Friday the winds will be SE about 10 mph, in Alamogordo. In El Paso, Las Cruces and Deming, south to southwest, 5-8 mph. Saturday, winds should be southwest, 5-8 mph all over. Thunderstorms a good possibility in E.P., in L.C. and in Deming - probably dry in Alamogordo. The rains leave the area on Sunday (though Monday morning may get wet again). Winds will be light and variable that day, all over, though maybe light northwest would be a better description for Alamogordo. So, recommendations on where to fly: Dry Canyon might be launchable on Friday, and possibly Magdalena Rim if you get there before it overdevelops. The Little Floridas are likely going to be too light for good soaring. Saturday, I'd again say that Dry Canyon is your best bet, but I'm guessing on rain in the Sacramentos even if the D.C. launch is dry. Watch out for thunderstorms, just in case. All other sites are likely to see thunderstorms. On Sunday, nothing looks good; even though it's a sunny, warm day, the winds just won't be doing anything. Maybe La Luz NW launch will work, but I think it will be too light to soar well. I'm glad that we're getting some rain - the desert here needs it, and the mountains want more of it - but the flying doesn't look too great at the moment. It's two weeks now to September, and maybe some better soaring then.
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:09 pm

FRIDAY, AUGUST 24 through SUNDAY, AUGUST 26, 2018:
Well! This is looking better. We could have a flyable weekend in front of us. We've been getting some rain through the week, but that tails off through the weekend. Chances of precipitation are generally about 10% each day, increasing a bit in the late afternoon. High temperatures should be 90 degrees F most places, slightly higher in El Paso. Jetstream is not a factor this weekend. Winds look good! On Friday, they will be light SW (about 10 mph) in Alamogordo, light W/SW in Las Cruces and El Paso, light W in Deming. Looks like Dry Canyon, La Luz, the Little Floridas, Agave Hill and Nelson's Launch should all be launchable. On Saturday, more of the same, though more southwesterly in Las Cruces and Deming - you can add Magdalena Rim to the list of launch sites on that day. On Sunday, light SW all over the area. All the named launches should be OK that day. I would guess that Dry Canyon is best for the hang gliders, since you'll get better winds and thermals with that kind of height AGL. The PG's pretty much have their pick - winds should be ideal. I have no definite weekend plans yet, so give me a call if you get a chance to go out, and we'll see how things are going. Good luck, and fly safe.
-Robin
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