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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu May 11, 2017 6:44 am

FRIDAY, MAY 12 through SUNDAY, MAY 14:
This will be a windy weekend, except for Friday. No rain, warm temperatures, and winds from the southwest. Friday, light to moderate; Saturday and Sunday, pretty strong. I'd recommend flying Dry Canyon, La Luz on Friday, and if you go early, on Saturday and Sunday you could add Little Floridas, Agave Hill, Nelson's Launch and Matt's Mountain to that. I'm planning to go out to Dry Canyon on Friday; we'll meet in the Cox Field LZ about 10:00. Come and join us if you have the time!
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu May 18, 2017 1:57 pm

FRIDAY, MAY 19 through SUNDAY, MAY 21:
It looks pretty good for flying this weekend. Temperatures will be warm but not scorching (mid to high 80's), dry, and west to southwest winds most places, not too strong. Friday should see some west/northwest winds, so La Luz, Dry Canyon, Little Floridas and Agave Hill should be OK. They're stronger that day than the the others, so go out early, I think. Saturday and Sunday winds should be a little lighter, 10 to 13 mph on the ground in Alamogordo and Las Cruces and Deming. West/southwest, so Dry Canyon, La Luz and Little Floridas should work. In El Paso, expect light east/southeast winds; the Anapra site should be flyable for PG's. Looks OK for soaring at the Sod Farms all weekend. Go out and fly if you can!

The long range forecast for next weekend looks excellent so far. Dry, not too hot, and winds light to moderate out of the southwest - it should be a good few days for the Dry Canyon Fly-In. Keep it on your calendar!

If you want to do some flying this weekend, let me know!
-Robin
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Weekend Weather for Saturday May 20, 2017

Postby Bill Cummings » Fri May 19, 2017 9:27 am

Robin's forecast doesn't agree with KOBE radio Las Cruces.
Their forecast for Saturday, the recording says, "Northerly winds 6 to 9 mph out of the Southwest." :wtf:
First time I heard it I thought I was going nuts.
The second time I heard the weather recording I had a big laugh. :srofl:
PS Remember the saying: "When the clock strikes 13 it calls into question
all previous information." :srofl: :crazy:
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu May 25, 2017 1:38 pm

FRIDAY, MAY 26 through MONDAY, MAY 29:
OK, here's the deal... Friday looks like a blowout for our area, unless you are launching by 9:00 am or, maybe, a little before sunset. Southwest winds, though. This makes Dry Canyon and La Luz a possibility, though not a good one. Little Floridas and Matt's Mountain are probably not going to work (blown out and too westerly) and Agave Hill, Nelson's Launch and other PG sites at the Franklins are probably blown out unless you are there real early. Saturday should be a great day at the Dry Canyon Fly-In with moderate southwest winds all day. La Luz and the Franklin sites should work well, too, but the Little Floridas are probably still too windy, and Matt's Mountain is still too westerly. Sunday, the winds turn more southerly, still moderate in strength, and so Dry Canyon should still be a good bet. They might be east in El Paso, so Anapra is at least worth a try. Torrey Paso, too, if PG's want to try it. On Monday the winds are supposed to be modest easterly. If not too strong, I expect Dry Canyon to still be launchable, and probably pretty good for flying once you get out away from the launch. Try to launch by noon, though; WINDYTY is predicting they will change in the early afternoon, from light southwest to light southeast. El Paso will see easterly winds that day, a repeat of Sunday's. Temperatures should be warm all weekend, across our area, with highs about 90 degrees F - not blazing hot, at least - and it should be clear except for Monday, when there is a small chance for moisture. That wraps it up, I think; in conclusion, come on out to the Dry Canyon Fly-In if you can, and enjoy the El Paso sites if you can't. Good luck, and fly safe! See you at the Fly-In, I hope.
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:01 am

FRIDAY, JUNE 9 through SUNDAY, JUNE 11:
After a week of unusual precipitation, we are in for a dry, hot weekend. Temperatures will climb to about 100 degrees F (about 38 C) and the skies should be pretty clear. Winds on Friday should be light northwest and west, on Saturday moderate west/southwest, on Sunday strong southwest. Sites to try? On Friday, try the Little Floridas and La Luz. On Saturday Dry Canyon, La Luz, Little Floridas (early), Agave Hill and Nelson's Launch (early) should all work. On Sunday, Dry Canyon and La Luz, early on, should be OK for hang gliders. Matt's Mountain might be good, too, but be ready to launch by 10:00 am. Other southwest sites may be launchable early in the morning, but I expect them to blow out by noon. The Sod Farms should be good for training all weekend - no storms, no outflow, and the winds should be pretty steady. Be ready with sunscreen and a hat this weekend, and expect to get some airtime if you want. I may try to soar Dry Canyon on Saturday. Fly safe!
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:37 am

FRIDAY, JUNE 16 through SUNDAY, JUNE 18:
This weekend looks easier to predict than some we've had. At least it's pretty consistent throughout our area. In summary it'll be hot, dry and breezy. The jetstream is giving us a pass, deciding that the northern US deserves its attentions, and we are left with moderate winds down here and plenty of not-unexpected heat. Temperatures should be 102 F or more (about 38 to 40 C) and skies should be clear. Winds? Mostly westerly to northwest, not too strong, on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday they consistently look easterly, light to moderate. My recommendations? On Friday and Saturday the Little Floridas, Dry Canyon, La Luz, Agave Hill and Nelson's Launch should all be pretty good. On Sunday, Anapra might be soarable, and Torrey Paso could be worth a trip. Training at the Sod Farms should be good all weekend, though the towing direction will switch 180 degrees from Saturday to Sunday. Thermals should be abundant, with the heat and aridity we currently are experiencing. If you can take the temperatures, then take to the air! And let me know if you want to go fly - I'm probably available. Be safe!
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:15 am

FRIDAY, JUNE 23 through SUNDAY, JUNE 25:
Looking at the models, it appears that our region is edging towards an early entry into the rainy season. We are hitting record temperatures in the Southwest as I write this (Thursday morning) but the temperatures are supposed to drop back into the 90's on Saturday and Sunday. There is a chance for rain on Saturday and Sunday evenings, a little higher as you go further east. Winds? It looks like Alamogordo is the place to fly this weekend. If you try it on Friday, La Luz should work, with north and northwest winds, light to moderate. The Friday high temperature, though, is forecast to be 109 degrees Fahrenheit. On Saturday La Luz and Dry Canyon should both be good, with winds light to moderate out of the southwest, and high temperatures about 95 degrees F. Meanwhile, in El Paso, temperatures will be topping out around 98 degrees, and winds will be moderate from the east/southeast. Anapra might be worth a try, but probably not Nelson's Launch or Agave Hill. The Las Cruces area will also see south to southeast winds, so Matt's Mountain is not a good bet. The Little Floridas are also likely to be east/southeast, so they won't work. On Sunday Dry Canyon and La Luz should also be worth a try, with moderate southwest winds there, but a chance of afternoon thunderstorms as well. In El Paso winds are forecast as light to moderate, south to southeast, so even Anapra might not work. Same for Las Cruces and the Little Floridas. Sunday temperatures might be a bit hotter than Saturday, too, if rainfall doesn't cool things off on Saturday night. In summary, Saturday looks like the best day to soar this weekend; look for strong thermals with the heat we're having. I think I'd like to fly Dry Canyon on Saturday if I can find a driver, maybe meeting in the LZ about noon. Give me a call if you want to go! And if you fly this weekend, be cautious and safe.
-Robin
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:44 am

FRIDAY, JUNE 30 through SUNDAY, JULY 2:
The rainy season might be on hold for a little bit longer; the odds for precipitation this weekend aren't real great. Maybe a 50% chance in Alamogordo on Sunday. Mostly the weekend is going to be dry, breezy, and hot, with high temperatures hitting 100+ degrees F. Winds will be light to moderate. On Friday the winds will be westerly and moderate in strength. Dry Canyon and La Luz should work, the Little Floridas, and maybe Agave Hill and Nelson's Launch if it's not too northwesterly. On Saturday, in some of our area, winds should be light to moderate west and southwest; Dry Canyon and La Luz should still be good, Matt's Mountain near Las Cruces (in the afternoon) and the Little Floridas. The El Paso sites probably will not be launchable, as the winds are forecast to be southeast through the day. Sunday the winds are forecast to be light and northwest, so La Luz may be the best bet for airtime that day. I don't think our other foot-launched sites will work. Expect hot temperatures every day! And low density of atmosphere, so run fast on your launches. If you go out to fly, stay hydrated and wear a hat. I am looking at trying to fly the Little Floridas on Friday, and maybe Dry Canyon on Saturday (or maybe be the driver then). Be safe!
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Thu Jul 06, 2017 8:23 am

FRIDAY, JULY 7 through SUNDAY, JULY 9:
This looks like a weekend for Alamogordo. Most places will see east and southeast winds, moderate to light, with temperatures in the mid to high 90's. It should be dry except for a possibility of afternoon thunderstorms in Alamogordo on Sunday. Alamogordo is the exception on winds, where the winds will be west and southwest, light to moderate throughout the weekend. High temperatures there will be low to mid 90's. My recommendations: Foot launched flight at Dry Canyon and La Luz on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and also in El Paso, at Anapra. Towing at the Sod Farm should be good all weekend, with consistent east-southeast winds, not too strong. No blowouts this weekend, so if you don't mind the heat (still a bargain, compared to June's infernos) get out and do some soaring. I plan to go out to Alamogordo on Friday with Bill Cummings and a visitor from California, so if you'd like to join us, be in the Cox Field LZ about 9:30 that morning. Be safe!
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Re: Weekend Weather

Postby RobinHastings » Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:31 pm

FRIDAY, JULY 14 through SUNDAY, JULY 16:
It looks like the rainy season might finally get underway next week. Not much chance this weekend, if the RAP models are to be believed, but yes, coming soon to a desert near you! This weekend looks marginally flyable. The winds will be moderate to light, and mostly out of the east and southeast. High temperatures should be a little lower than we've been having, though, supposedly in the low to mid 90 degree range. I'd recommend trying to fly at Anapra and Torrey Paso, or go towing on Highway 9. About the only southwest-facing site that might work is Dry Canyon, but launch it by noon. After that time the winds may be shifting from south/southwest to southeast and then east. There might be some thunderstorms, but the odds for those get a lot better starting on Monday. Be wary of big dark clouds if you do fly, and make sure that the winds are no more tricky than usual for the Southwest. Good luck!
-Robin
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