Guads President's Day W/E

[RobinHastings]

Hi, Nate. I hope you get to the Guads and get to fly. When I check the Dell City forecast with Weather Underground I see some pretty strong winds for Friday, and again on Sunday and Monday. This is long range, though, as you noted. I think your account of the past gatherings' weather is pretty much right on. It can be almost anything out there, at this time of year. I hope we get to meet up, either at the Guads or at the Dry Canyon Fly-In in late May.
-Robin

[RobinHastings]

The weather for this weekend still looks pretty strong. On Friday the top winds on the ground may be 30 mph or more. Saturday looks pretty good, though, with top winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. Sunday might be cross slope until it turns in the afternoon, and then gets pretty strong, into the launch. Time it right, for that day. Monday gets strong as well, but coming in to the launch, southwest. My advice is to be ready to launch early in the day, and if it's what you want, take it then. It'll only get stronger. The temperatures should be normal for New Mexico, at least - highs in the 50's and 60's each day, lows at night in the high 30's and low 40's. The chances of rain look pretty slight, so it should be dry (we're getting rain in the area this morning, Tuesday). All in all, the Guads look possible for this weekend, but expect the winds - as usual.
-Robin

[Bill Cummings]

Max sent a text:
"Guads this weekend!
Spread the word to the
RGSA!"

[SamKellner]

Bill,

Got a message from a former student, Stephen Marcum. He had a super flight, 45min. and 400' over the ridge.
He was stoked.

Thanks Bill,

[RobinHastings]

Guads This Weekend actually did happen. Friday was too strong to fly, but everyone got airtime on Saturday. About 15 pilots, I think, were in attendance, many from Austin, Houston, Midland and other spots in Texas, as well as Albuquerque and Los Alamos. Some landed down in the valley, when the winds calmed down after launching, but others made good top landings. No crashes, that I heard of, at least. A real nice gathering. The bonfire was wonderful, so was the food, and the company was best of all. A lot of great visiting. More of it took place this morning (Sunday) as well, since the winds at launch were straight in at 30 to 35 mph. Nobody crazy enough to fly in that, I'm pleased to say. I left at noon, leaving Mike Ellsworth as the sole Southern New Mexico representative and reporter. Skies were clearing, I think, but the wind kept going strong, all the way back up to Cloudcroft at least. Back to you now, Mike... (Who never posts, so don't be looking for it here!)
-Robin

[Bill Cummings]

Nate put up an excellent landing on top video. Check it out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NWcZ9iWjvg

[Nate]

Every March I say "the Guads sure were fun but that was a heck of a drive compared to the local tow assets, next year I'm going to skip it".

Every January I find myself with an itch for a road trip, camping, gob smacking views, and remote ridge action.....

[RobinHastings]

FORECAST FOR PRESIDENTS DAY WEEKEND, February 16 through February 19:
This is the long-range forecast, so it could certainly change by the time the weekend rolls around. I'm posting this on Monday evening. As far as I can tell, it looks like Friday will be unflyable. Winds are supposed to be northeast, blowing straight downhill. We might even get some rain that day, or the day before. Saturday, Sunday and Monday should see southwest winds with no precipitation. However, the winds will be fairly strong. I expect 20 to 30 in the campsite, through most of the day. Set up early on those days and be ready to fly when you like how it looks - in my limited experience with the Guads, it only gets stronger. Don't try to top land with less than 300 feet of altitude above launch - 500 feet would be better - and keep up lots of speed on your landing, as it's bound to be turbulent. I'm thinking it'll be a pretty good gathering, though, and there should be some flying opportunities there.
-Robin
Feb. 12, 2018

[RobinHastings]

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, FEB. 16 through MONDAY, FEB. 19, 2018:
This weekend looks pretty good for Saturday and Sunday flying at the Guadalupes. Friday looks like a washout - literally. We could get a good rainfall that day, and through the night. And northeast winds as well, blowing straight downhill. Saturday looks like it starts out with light northwest winds, getting a bit stronger and more southwesterly in the late afternoon. Sunday looks like moderate to strong southwest winds all day - plan to fly early. Monday looks like a blowout, according to the GFS model I was looking at. That's when the jetstream (jetscream?) comes looping down to the south and catches us. Temperatures should be showing a high in the 60's, at least until Monday when all bets are off. I'll try to post again tomorrow. If you come to fly the Guads, be safe! There will be other days, if this one looks insane...
-Robin
575-541-5744

[RobinHastings]

President's Day Weekend, 2018 - Friday Feb. 16 through Monday, Feb. 19:
Unfortunately, the weather forecast has deteriorated from my last posting, and this is not looking like an optimum weekend. Late Saturday and early Sunday might be good for flying. The rest of the weekend is going to be tough. Here is my Thursday prognostication, and it appears to be corroborated by more recent forecasts today (Friday). Sorry about that, folks...
-Robin

The good news is that we're getting rain! The bad news is, we're getting rain - and wind. It's a complicated forecast, this time around. For the local area, it looks like we get rain on Friday, all over the area. On Saturday the winds turn light and variable, mostly north and northwest. Maybe puffs of east, in El Paso. It will even be light at the Guadalupes, which usually blow out. On Sunday the winds get stronger, from the west and southwest, approaching blowout conditions in the afternoon. The Guadalupes might be flyable early on. It looks like a blowout by noon, or maybe earlier. Monday looks like a blowout all over the area, from the southwest. Temperatures should be highs in the 50's and low 60's, lows down in the 30s. Recommendations: On Friday, La Luz might work, if it doesn't get soaked. On Saturday, Dry Canyon, being higher, might get winds to launch in, but I expect the road up to be pretty muddy. The Guadalupes might work for paragliders that day, but I think it could be light for hang gliders to stay up. On Sunday, our southwest facing sites should work - if you're ready to fly at sunrise. Expect winds to rapidly increase from the west and southwest, and be sustained overnight. On Monday, it looks like a blowout all over. Best to hide in the bunkers that day. I'm sorry that our annual Presidents Day Weekend gathering at the Guadalupes looks so cursed, but from my perspective it looks like we get only Saturday afternoon and early Sunday as flyable conditions. Call me if you want an update. Good luck, and be safe!
-Robin
575-541-5744 home
575-386-8212 cell