Forecasts

[Bob Kuczewski]

National Weather Service Forecast in 1 hour increments


  Saturday, May 30th, 2015  

6am	7am	8am	9am	10am	11am	Noon	1pm	2pm	3pm	4pm	5pm	6pm	7pm	8pm	9pm
S	S	S	S	S	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW
2	2 	2 	2 	2 	8 	8 	8 	10 	10 	10 	9 	9 	9 	7 	7

  Sunday, May 31st, 2015  

6am	7am	8am	9am	10am	11am	Noon	1pm	2pm	3pm	4pm	5pm	6pm	7pm	8pm	9pm
S	S	S	S	S	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW	SW
2	2	2	2	2	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10

[Bob Kuczewski]

I just checked the forecast again, and the SW winds of yesterday's prediction are now forecast due west.   

  Saturday, May 30th, 2015  

6am	7am	8am	9am	10am	11am	Noon	1pm	2pm	3pm	4pm	5pm	6pm	7pm	8pm	9pm
S	S	S	S	S	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
2	2	2	2	2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

  Sunday, May 31st, 2015  

6am	7am	8am	9am	10am	11am	Noon	1pm	2pm	3pm	4pm	5pm	6pm	7pm	8pm	9pm
S	S	S	S	S	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
2	2	2	2	2	8	8	8	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

[JoeF]

Forecast, forecast, forecast!
Looks pleasant for HG.

Dockweiler Handy ? See Safe-Splat:
http://ushawks.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=912&p=12216#p12216

[Bob Kuczewski]

I look forward to flying with you tomorrow Joe!!!!

Until then, I'm working on a new BBCode to make tables for better forecast displays. Here's the current version:

  Sunday, May 31st, 2015  

6am

7am

8am

9am

10am

11am

Noon

1pm

2pm

3pm

4pm

5pm

6pm

7pm

8pm

9pm

S

S

S

S

S

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

2

2

2

2

2

8

8

8

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

[Bob Kuczewski]

Here's an updated version that is mostly generated automatically:

  Forecast for Sunday May 31st, made on Sat May 30th, 2015 at 11pm  

6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
240	240	180	180	180	240	240	240	240	240	240	250	250	250	260	260	260
2.3	2.3	3.4	3.4	3.4	6.9	6.9	6.9	10.3	10.3	10.3	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.5

The first version (above) was done by hand just by copying the data from the web page and formatting it with my new BBCode for making tables. The second version was generated (mostly) automatically with a Java program that reads the National Weather Service XML data and then converts it into BBCode. It's a bit more accurate with numeric wind directions and fractional speed estimates.

One of the things that was puzzling me for a long time was an unexplained speed difference between what's displayed on the NWS web page and what's in their XML file. I think I've corrected it by assuming that the XML data is in nautical miles per hour while the web site display is in "regular" miles per hour. A factor of 1.151 (and rounding to integers) made them agree nicely.  

The program also generates a plot:

wind_2015_05_31.png (10.58 KiB) Viewed 6583 times

The middle line (green) is the wind speed (mph), and the bottom line (blue) is the wind direction. The top line (red) is the westerly (lift-producing) component of the speed on a west facing slope (I wrote this for Torrey). It's easiest to see the difference by looking at places in the red graph where the "lifting" component is zero. In most cases, you can look at the wind speed below it (green) and see that it's not zero. But then when you look down at the direction, you'll find that it's "gone south" (or east) and that's why the lifting component is zero.

[Bob Kuczewski]

  Friday's Forecast - Made on Fri Jun 05 04:45:52 2015 UTC  

Time	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
Direction	240	240	240	240	240	230	230	230	230	230	230	250	250	250	250	250	250
Speed	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	9.2	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8

  Saturday's Forecast - Made on Fri Jun 05 04:45:52 2015 UTC  

Time	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
Direction	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	260	260	260	260	260	260
Speed	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.3	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1

  Sunday's Forecast - Made on Fri Jun 05 04:45:52 2015 UTC  

Time	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
Direction	300	300	300	300	300	290	290	290	290	290	290	270	270	270	270	270	270
Speed	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.3	10.3	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.8	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1

And here's the graphical forecast for the weekend and beyond:

2015_06_04.png (10.68 KiB) Viewed 6572 times

Sunday looks real good!!!     

[Bob Kuczewski]

Here's the forecast for Sunday June 7th, 2015 (made Saturday around 2:30).

  Forecast for Sunday June 7th, 2015 (Made on Sat Jun 06 16:53 2015 UTC)  

Time	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
Direction	230	230	230	230	230	260	260	260	260	260	260	260	260	260	260	260	260
Speed	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0	16.0

At 11am the winds are from the west (260 degrees) at 16 mph and continue all afternoon until after sunset!!

That looks very good for soaring ... possibly even in my Falcon 195!!   

Here's the graph:

2015_06_06.png (9.57 KiB) Viewed 6555 times

[Bob Kuczewski]

It seems that they've backed off the forecast just a bit. Here's the latest as of 1:30am Pacific Time:

  Forecast Made on Sun Jun 07 04:09:36 2015 UTC  

Time	6a	7a	8a	9a	10a	11a	12n	1p	2p	3p	4p	5p	6p	7p	8p	9p	10p
Direction	250	250	230	230	230	250	250	250	250	250	250	260	260	260	240	240	240
Speed	3.0	3.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	13.0	13.0	13.0	9.0	9.0	9.0

It still looks like good flying from about 2pm until sunset.   

Here's the graph:

Forecast_2015_06_07.png (9.66 KiB) Viewed 6540 times