Sign in, say "hi", ... and be welcomed.

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Sun Mar 27, 2011 3:30 pm

Good post Tad! :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: (I'll bet you didn't see that coming)

Really, I think criticism is great. If nothing else, I hope that's what makes this forum different from all the others ... and different from USHPA. Having said that, I would like you to try to cut back on the profanity so you could reach a wider audience. With 3 years in the Army, you can bet that I've heard it all. The songs we used to sing on marches would curdle the language you've used. But remember that some people are turned off by it. So you're only hurting your ability to reach a wider audience with some of your language. You're also handing ammunition to anyone who wants to bury these discussions ... and this entire forum. OK, enough said on that topic...

With regard to probability, you've got to remember that I'm an engineer. I've spent much of my career considering probability of detection, probability of failure, and probability of false alarm. I know that nothing is 100% safe or certain. We all take risks when we drive, when we eat, when we make love, when we swim, when we do anything. In fact doing nothing also has a probability of death associated with it. So we can't just refrain from everything with a non-zero probability of death or injury. So let's get past that and put some hard numbers on the table. Let's do some real analysis of the risk.

Question: What's your estimated probability of a serious or fatal injury during a typical Wallaby tandem flight?

You can make a guess, or use rough estimates based on your background, or use consult an astrologer. However you get it, I just want your best estimated probability of a serious or fatal incident. Is it one out of 10 flights? One out of 100? One out of 1000? One out of 10000? Let's start with some numbers (even estimates) and then we can evaluate my decision to fly with 100% trust in their standard procedures.

OK?

Most of all, thanks for participating in the forum. I hope it will help you, me, and anyone who ever ends up reading this. That's my goal, and I appreciate you being here to help.

Bob Kuczewski

P.S. I was thinking that it might be good to break this discussion off into a new topic with a more appropriate title so people could find it. But since it's mostly you and I, I'd like to know what you think. There are several good places to break it, and I could leave a trail of breadcrumbs so people who've been following this can find it as well. This is a forum, but it's also a chance to archive a history of our thoughts and discussions for others to benefit from. So I'd like to be sure that we can serve that purpose as well. Please let me know what you think best serves the community.
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Odds of 100% Trust Equaling 100% Safety

Postby Free » Sun Mar 27, 2011 4:23 pm

bobk wrote: then we can evaluate my decision to fly with 100% trust in their standard procedures.


100% trust doesn't equal 100% safety.
Only one thing that is 100% certain on any flight that leaves the ground is that there is a 100% posibility that you may be harmed or killed. Malcolm isn't able to guarantee that you will not be harmed and that is why you signed your life away in the fine print of your thrill ride contract.

You pay the money and take your chances.
100% trust is only a game of faith that is being played in our heads.
Free
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:47 pm

Re: Odds of 100% Trust Equaling 100% Safety

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Sun Mar 27, 2011 8:31 pm

Warren, you're another fellow who I'm very happy to have here on the US Hawks!!

You're right that 100% trust doesn't equal 100% safety. But safety is largely statistical in nature. If one tow system has a 1% failure rate, and another tow system has a 2% failure rate (twice as much!!) the chances of encountering that difference are very small in a single sample. In fact, if I was worried about that difference (a 1% difference) then I should be just as worried about the "safer" system (with a 1% failure rate) in the first place!!!

By the way, let me make it clear that I'm not ready to say that anyone's system is better than anyone else's system. Despite Tad's confidence (thanks Tad), I know that I don't know enough to say anything about towing safety. Those numbers were simply to illustrate that relative safety rates are less important in single samples than they are with many repeated samples. It may turn out that I end up finding that Wallaby's system is the best. I'm not going in with any preconceived notions at all.

My goal is to make flying better (safer, more fun, and more fair) for everyone. I was happy spending my money on lessons with Joe Greblo, Rob McKenzie, Ken Baier, Alan Chuculate, and John Heiney. I was happy because I believed they all shared those goals. I would have been happy spending my money with David Jebb or Robin Marien if I believed they shared those goals. In fact, I started out giving them the benefit of the doubt until they proved that they didn't deserve it. So far, I've been happy and impressed with what Malcolm has created. I am going in there hoping to find good things. I'm hoping that if I have any concerns, they'll be addressed. I can imagine hanging under a tree on a blown out day testing different kinds of releases. That's the kind of feeling that I've gotten so far, and that's what I'm hoping to find when I go back.

I'll keep you posted. 8-)
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Free » Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:20 pm

Sorry, my comment didn't add much of anything but noise. The only thing I needed to say is that I'm convinced that a curved pin barrel release is tons worse than a straight pin release. I didn't have to build a test rig to see the problem with it. They don't make any sense and I wonder why others can't see the issues even though they have examples and even experienced the problem themselves. (Bart)

The spinnaker problems are harder to visualise but the tests say they bind under load and I can recall a time or two that happened to me. Releases that don't work when you need them are odds you don't need a bookie to calculate.

One in a thousand might be good odds if it doesn't end in death but it shouldn't take rocket science to come up with a better system. With the barrel release it's just too easy to do the right thing. Straight pin = same cost, same construction but much better odds for a quick release.

Why such resistance? Why the denial?
Straight pins are a no brainer. Curved pins bind in the barrel under load. I see no good reason to use them. It's silly to think that they somehow assist in 'clearing' the barrel although frankly I was a little surprised to see that they deformed as much as they do. The curve aids this deformation and this is what binds the pin in the barrel.

If I owned a multi million dollar flight park I certainly would not be using curved pin, barrel releases, especially after being advised of the issues.
Free
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 1084
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:47 pm

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:55 pm

Free wrote:Sorry, my comment didn't add much of anything but noise.

Your comments are always good by me. I'm always happy to see you post!! :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

Free wrote:The spinnaker problems are harder to visualise but the tests say they bind under load and I can recall a time or two that happened to me.

I'm soooo inexperienced with towing that I can't even visualize a spinnaker release at all. So I'm really a clean slate. I need to start getting more familiar with towing before I can really contribute anything worth reading.

Free wrote:Straight pins are a no brainer. Curved pins bind in the barrel under load.

I'm inclined to agree with you. But then I thought about actually writing a software simulation of both. That got me to thinking about many of the subtle issues like the amount of surface area contacting the barrel (which might affect the friction as it slides), the normal forces, and the coefficients of friction. I was also thinking about the possibility of the "free loop" (if that's what it's called) getting stuck on the wrong side of the straight pin. Is that more or less likely to happen with a curved pin? I don't know, but it's just not that obvious to me .. yet.

It may be a personal deficiency, but I tend to learn more about things by actually touching them and experimenting with them. At this point I've never even had any kind of release in my hands ... at all! Even during my tandem, they were pretty busy that morning so I didn't have time to handle or play with any of the hardware. I also didn't want to make myself a nuisance during one of their busiest days.

My point with statistics is that I believe if there is a difference, it will be small with respect to the total number of tows that are done. It's certainly worth looking into anything that will make our sport safer, but I don't think the common practices are so unsafe that they justify great fear ... especially when sampled in small numbers. That's not to minimize any losses or accidents. We should work toward ZERO. But part of working toward zero is taking the time to examine the different common practices and even try them with relative safety. That's what I hope to do.

Mostly, I'm happy to see diverse opinions here, and I'm happy that we can have rational discussions about this. Thanks!!
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby TadEareckson » Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:57 am

(I'll bet you didn't see that coming)

No, doesn't surprise me in the least.

Really, I think criticism is great.

That was mostly criticism for being human. There's very little in that post that I jumped on you for that I haven't done in spades myself. But when we're trying to forge an organization - or even a model of an organization - that's dealing with life and death issues we can't afford to be human.

With 3 years in the Army, you can bet that I've heard it all.

Thanks for helping me further crystallize a little thinking. Lotsa correlations between the hang gliding and the military.

We're using very dangerous toys to complete very dangerous missions in very dangerous environments and lotsa people get very mangled and killed and lotsa people end up damaged by shell shock - I mean battle fatigue - I mean post-traumatic stress disorder.

I've been in and around hang gliding over ten times as long as you were in the military. Let's compare notes...

I can recall personally known... lotsa broken arms, a lost eye, a broken neck, a paralyzed from the waist down, a couple of limb amputations, nine real serious crashes from which people returned, six real serious crashes from which people didn't return, a dozen kills, a couple of regular suicides, and one murder-suicide. And I can expand a bit if we open it up to tugs, ultralights, and paragliders.

And I've been stretchered off the mountain on one occasion from which I fully recovered and have been helped off the mountain on another occasion which has left me with a somewhat minor permanent disability and the minor but constant pain to go with it.

So what have you got?

The songs we used to sing on marches would curdle the language you've used.

So maybe people who deal with life and death levels of responsibility have better things to worry about than using asterisks to describe situations in which sh*t's hitting fans.

But remember that some people are turned off by it.

FINE. Phuck 'em. They are more than welcome to not read anything I say and I don't particularly want those sorts of people sticking around to reproduce too much anyway.

So you're only hurting your ability to reach a wider audience with some of your language.

Assumption with absolutely nothing to support it. George Carlin reached a wider - and BETTER - audience than some standup you never heard of who woulda met with Jerry Falwell's approval.

You're also handing ammunition to anyone who wants to bury these discussions ... and this entire forum.

One of our members participated in the sabotaging of one of my threads which might have prevented our most recent towing death. Another has advised against complying with the most important preflight procedure defined by the world's largest glider manufacturer. People who have omitted that procedure HAVE died BECAUSE they omitted that procedure. Deal with that and then get back to me about how I'm giving ammunition to the forces of evil with four letter words.

I know that nothing is 100% safe or certain.

bulls***. I can take a length one inch of Dacron webbing, sit in front of the TV for a while with a needle and a spool of dental floss, and fashion a hang strap that'll break a factory fresh glider about four times over. Maybe I can't tell you exactly where it's gonna blow but I absolutely CAN tell you that I can turn your glider to junk before the strap's even thinking about breaking a sweat.

So we can't just refrain from everything with a non-zero probability of death or injury.

That is NOT what I'm about. I'm about sending you up with equipment such that IF you get injured or killed there is ZERO probability that it'll be 'cause your hang strap failed or your release jammed. I've done that.

Question: What's your estimated probability of a serious or fatal injury during a typical Wallaby tandem flight?

Let's call it one in a million. That's way too generous but, what the hell, it's an easy number (like one G for a weak link).

Let's start with some numbers (even estimates) and then we can evaluate my decision to fly with 100% trust in their standard procedures.

Kinda like Warren's gonna say... If you fly with one hundred percent trust in someone's "standard" procedures based upon the number of people they haven't been killing lately you're out of your freakin' mind. You're not a pilot, you're not an engineer, you're the latest member of a religious cult. Pilots and engineers are eternal skeptical pessimists.

OK?

NO. IT'S *NOT* OK. It's not OK 'cause that double fatality WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED if Malcolm hadn't been using stupid shitrigged equipment which twenty years ago before it ever got off the ground we knew would fail and violates the crap out of existing standards and regulations.

I've been watching tow crashes for thirty years and I defy you to show me one in which there were half competent people at both ends of the string using optimal equipment.

The BHPA people are morons but here's what even THEY have to say on tandem aerotowing:

On tow the Pilot in Command must have his hand actually on the release at all times. 'Near' the release is not close enough! When you have two hands completely full of locked-out glider, taking one off to go looking for the release guarantees that your situation is going to get worse before it gets better.

Gregg McNamee - 1996/12

To actuate the primary release the pilot does not have to give up any control of the glider. (Common sense tells us that the last thing we want to do in an emergency situation is give up control of the glider in order to terminate the tow.)

If your system requires you to take your hand off the control bar to actuate the release it is not suitable.

Tom Peghiny, Manned Kiting - 1974

Never take your hands off the bar.

Go ahead. Argue against that. Tell me why that's not mandated on BOTH sides of the Atlantic for BOTH tandem and solo. We've been saying this for forty years. But where are these a**holes putting the release actuators?

We're not gonna kill the two people on the tandem once every million tows 'cause the pilot got hit with something too nasty to cope with - we're gonna kill them cause he got hit with something too nasty to cope with with one hand.

But safety is largely statistical in nature. If one tow system has a 1% failure rate...

This is bulls***. This is saying that aviation safety is nothing but a dice roll and all we're using our brains for is to keep our skulls from collapsing. You're not looking at WHAT'S CAUSING THE FAILURES.

Joe Greblo teaches foot launching in compliance with USHGA regulations which state that a hook-in check be performed JUST PRIOR TO LAUNCH. The hook-in failure rate of people so trained is so low that it's probable that no one has ever been injured.

Rob McKenzie teaches a certifiably insane approach in flagrant violation of the regulations and his hang check crowd have failure rates of - I'd guess - about seventy percent over a flying career and those people get embarrassed, bruised, mangled, and killed all the time.

If the release actuator is on the downtube the fatality rate is gonna go up by thirtyfold over folk with the release actuator on the basetube.

Idiots who fly with light weak links have crash rates ASTRONOMICALLY higher than people who fly with heavy or no weak links.

Same goes for people who routinely (try to) land on their feet versus those who typically roll their landings in.

By the way, let me make it clear that I'm not ready to say that anyone's system is better than anyone else's system.

That's OK, I can handle that just fine. The stuff you were flying with Saturday was dangerous, shitrigged junk...

John Fritsche - 2008/12/12

I haven't towed in several years. Do people still use those (IMO, stupid) releases that involve bicycle brakes?

...and everybody's known it since the beginning of time.

Despite Tad's confidence (thanks Tad)...

That's not confidence based upon just my say-so and the fact that nobody's been killed on any of my stuff lately. That's confidence based on lotsa homework, engineering standards, bench tests, common sense, and a severe case of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

...I know that I don't know enough to say anything about towing safety.

If you don't know now you won't know any better a couple of thousand tows from now. Driving a cab for thirty years won't do shitt for one's understanding of a hydraulic braking system. And growing up in a mud hut with nothing but goats and donkeys around isn't an insurmountable barrier to twelve year old kid being able to understand and perhaps design a better hydraulic braking system.

Those numbers were simply to illustrate that relative safety rates are less important in single samples than they are with many repeated samples.

The glider you're flying was not certified by building a hundred of them, throwing them up into the air, and seeing how often they fell back out of it. It was certified by building ONE prototype based upon decades of well understood principles, ground testing the crap out of it, then throwing it in the air to demonstrate it'll do what the designers were entirely confident it would.

1. I'm assuming you don't question the numbers on an HGMA certified glider.

2. If you ask me my numbers for - let's say - one of my shoulder mounted barrel releases in one point tow configuration I'm gonna be able to tell you that if you fly at 320 pounds you can blow two Gs (the maximum allowable weak link) with a sixteen pound pull.

3. If you call Malcolm and ask him...

...he refused to say, just aggressively stated they never had any problems with their releases, they were fine, goodbye, click.

I would think that that alone would make it pretty easy to make a call between the two of us.

4. If he ever HAD bothered to do his fu**ing job he'd tell you that at that kind of tension the pin would've folded in half and jammed in the barrel and if you wanted to get the pull down to twenty-five pounds you'd hafta drop the tow tension down to a bit under one G.

So far, I've been happy and impressed with what Malcolm has created.

Based on getting in the air real easy, having fun, and not getting killed one time?

I'm soooo inexperienced with towing that I can't even visualize a spinnaker release at all. So I'm really a clean slate. I need to start getting more familiar with towing before I can really contribute anything worth reading.

What the hell does towing have to do with visualizing or understanding a spinnaker shackle?

Towing is flying. Ya know how to fly ya pretty much know how to tow and a Hang Five isn't gonna be able to get any better at it than a Hang Two. (And I know a severely mangled Hang Five who was a few hundred times worse at it than an average Hang Two.)

A spinnaker shackle is - unfortunately and entirely inappropriately - towing equipment. Towing equipment has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with flying. It has only to do with dropping strings under - or not under - loads. There is NOTHING about tow equipment that a person with thirty years of towing experience is gonna be able to understand any better than a grade school kid with none whatsoever.

You wanna visualize a spinnaker shackle? I spent about a billion hours with a tripod and Photoshop to make it real easy for people like you to do that.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/aerotowrelease/

Those photos are organized into three SETS. Go nuts.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/aerotowrelease/3919079051/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/aerotowrelease/3919079055/

You tell me how much TOWING EXPERIENCE one needed to identify THAT as a bullet.

You tell me why we're STILL putting THAT BULLET in our cylinders even AFTER we've seen it blow somebody's brains out. Try to make it better than "It only matters one out of every million tows." 'cause that's not gonna hold much water with Robin's family.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/aerotowrelease/2796540691/

Show me THAT bullet in THAT cylinder.

But then I thought about actually writing a software simulation of both. That got me to thinking about many of the subtle issues like the amount of surface area contacting the barrel (which might affect the friction as it slides), the normal forces, and the coefficients of friction.

1. Phuck all that. Load the goddam thing up to two hundred pounds and try to blow it. If it takes more than 25 IT FLUNKS - PERIOD. And it does take more than 25 - it takes takes over 32. And if it took 25 it would still flunk 'cause you can use a straight pin and blow 350 with 17.

2. Contact area is totally irrelevant. If the coefficient of friction between two materials is X it doesn't matter if the contact area is a square inch or a square foot - the required pull is gonna be exactly the same.

3. All that's important here is mechanical advantage. The bent pin doesn't have any. And any kid who's ever played on a seesaw can understand that.

4. The tension-to-pull relationship is linear - twice the tension, twice the required pull. ('Cept with a Linknife - then things are reversed.)

I was also thinking about the possibility of the "free loop" (if that's what it's called) getting stuck on the wrong side of the straight pin. Is that more or less likely to happen with a curved pin? I don't know, but it's just not that obvious to me .. yet.

If you're a total moron and/or wanna sabotage a straight pin - you CAN. If you're a total moron and/or wanna sabotage a bent pin - you CAN. If you're a total moron and/or wanna sabotage a glider - you CAN (although the manufacturers have done a pretty good job of making that real tough on most of the modern stuff).

We don't have - or need - or want - regulations which make it impossible to fill a Cessna engine crankcase with gasoline. We do have regulations which tend to keep people that fu**ing stupid out of the cockpits.

If you've got an IQ of three or better you can hook up one of my barrel releases in such a manner that it will be physically impossible to have it jam in flight. If you've got an IQ of less than three you shouldn't be flying gliders anyway - you should be flying tugs.

It may be a personal deficiency, but I tend to learn more about things by actually touching them and experimenting with them.

That WOULD get you identified as a freak inside of the hang gliding community but I'm not entirely sure I'd identify it as a personal deficiency. I'm not sayin' one way or the other but it's possible I might have locked myself in my bedroom once or twice with a few spinnaker shackles and barrel releases for some prolonged touching and experimenting sessions. (And that business about going blind is a bunch of horse shitt invented by flight park operators.)

My point with statistics is that I believe if there is a difference, it will be small with respect to the total number of tows that are done.

If you're gonna spin a million chamber cylinder with one round in it, point the revolver at my nephew's head, and pull the trigger you'd better have a WAY better reason than it being statistically so small a problem that it's not worth taking that round out. 'Cause if you don't I'm gonna play statistics with you using a six cylinder revolver with five rounds.

We should work toward ZERO. But part of working toward zero is taking the time to examine the different common practices and even try them with relative safety. That's what I hope to do.

You're too freakin' late. In the early Seventies we had releases that functioned just fine under quadruple digits of tow tension and let you keep both hands on the basetube at all times. But then a bunch of stupid irresponsible a**holes took over the sport, rotted it out from the inside, flooded it with their toxic junk and propaganda, and set up mechanisms to marginalize and silence all critics. The common practices all SUCK.

Mostly, I'm happy to see diverse opinions here, and I'm happy that we can have rational discussions about this.

Diverse opinions or rational discussions? They're mutually exclusive. Pick one.

The only things I despise more that opinions are diverse opinions. We start at two plus two equals four and crush any diverse opinions with a ruthlessness that would horrify an SS officer.

This IS war, people ARE being killed by shitrigged equipment just as dead as they would be by AK-47s and I don't give a rat's a** how low the count or frequency is. And if you're willing to kill someone or even take a chance on killing someone just so you can continue making a buck by selling your shitrigged equipment or save a buck by not replacing it with something safe I've got no problem whatsoever with seeing you stood up in front of a wall - especially if you're Adam, Steve, Matt, or Davis.

I was thinking that it might be good to break this discussion off into a new topic with a more appropriate title so people could find it...

I don't care that much but I don't really see a need. When you start talking tow stuff the different aspects - releases, bridles, weak links, lockouts, stalls, drivers, emergency procedures - are all so interrelated that it's hopeless to try to neatly separate and organize them. And "Davis Straub", "Oz Report", and "Conflict of Interest" - alone or in combination - are all pretty good categories for covering everything that's rotten about hang gliding in general and towing in particular. But I'd be fine with "Jack Axaopoulus" or "Dr. Tracy S. Tillman" if that's what you wanna do.
TadEareckson
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 456
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:07 am

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Mon Mar 28, 2011 2:00 pm

Hi Tad,

I ran my word counting program on my earlier post and your response. Mine was 405 words and yours was 3075 words (including any quotes we used). There's nothing wrong with writing a lot, and I appreciate that you took the time to answer each point with great care. But even so, if I respond with the same level of thoroughness, then we're have an exponential growth of text. Regardless of our intentions, it will become unmanagable, so let me just respond to a few key points.

1. We disagree on the use of profanity. You seem to feel it's a useful tool, and I feel it turns off more people than it entertains. We may not ever find out who's right, but profanity on this site is just another thing that USHPA and Jack and Davis will use against us. If you want to give them that ammunition, then it's on you - not me. Enough said.

2. We both agree that the probability of a fatal or serious accident using Wallaby's current procedures is relatively low. You suggested using one in a million. That might be too optimistic, but we can both agree that serious accidents are rare. They're never as rare as we'd all like (ZERO), but they're rare enough that they're within acceptable bounds for many people (including me at this time). I think we also agree that a one-in-a-million risk taken 5 or 10 times is much safer than that same risk - or even a slightly lower risk - taken 10,000 times.

3. We'd both like to reduce the risk (of course), and you have proposed a solution. I'm not saying your solution is wrong or unnecessary. But I am saying that I still don't know enough to make any recommendation. I'd like some time to learn more, and that's what I plan to do. You can criticize me for doing that exploration, and you're welcome to abandon this site if you feel my exploration is wasting your time. I am doing my objective best to understand your concerns and to understand towing in general. I appreciate your help, but I'm not going to make any decisions without doing my own research. Besides, I'm not making any decisions that affect anyone but me anyway. You've certainly got a place here where you can make your case very clearly. That's more than hanggliding.org or the Oz Report or even USHPA has given you. My "stamp of approval" is pretty much meaningless beyond that because the US Hawks is currently so insignificant. Now if you want your views to become both adopted and meaningful, then give me some time to come up to speed and give this site some time to grow a meaningful membership. It's not going to happen overnight, and that's why the HGAA failed. They thought they were going to get insurance in a few months. That was unrealistic, and when it didn't work out they fell apart. I don't want the US Hawks to follow that pattern. I'm willing to take the time to build a strong base of people and ideas. I'd like you to be part of that base. I hope you'll consider it.

4. You wrote:

If you don't know now you won't know any better a couple of thousand tows from now. Driving a cab for thirty years won't do shitt for one's understanding of a hydraulic braking system. And growing up in a mud hut with nothing but goats and donkeys around isn't an insurmountable barrier to twelve year old kid being able to understand and perhaps design a better hydraulic braking system.

I disagree. I think there's a lot that a designer can actually learn from using the system they're designing (or similar systems). Think about things like the stiffness of the pedal, the location of the pedal, the interference of the pedal with other pedals, the size and shape of the pedal. Don't forget the location of the cylinder, the need to add fluid, and the need to bleed fluid. These are all design decisions that are much more difficult without some experience actually using a braking system in real life. Now it is theoretically possible for a superior human mind with superior training and no experience to do better than a poor human mind with lots of experience. But take the same two minds and have one design a braking system based on years of driving and working with cars and the other based on years of driving and working with donkeys. Statistically speaking, which braking system do you think will be better?

Tad, you're a fantastic resource. You're willing to dedicate time and energy and thought to what you believe. How could I not appreciate that? I see my challenge as trying to figure out a way to bring your dedication, energy, and thought to a point where it can be used effectively by more and more pilots. If you can help me with that, then I think we'll make a difference.
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Tue Mar 29, 2011 8:35 pm

Hi again Tad,

I just wanted to go on record saying that I enjoyed our phone conversation today. I hope that doesn't ruin your reputation. :srofl:

Looking forward to future collaboration...

Bob Kuczewski
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby TadEareckson » Thu Mar 31, 2011 1:05 pm

I've been a bit buried by happenings that I've been dealing with on Kite Strings and on the phone with Bob and am behind over here. The following is a bit dated but lemme post it anyway to keep things running somewhat smoothly.

I ran my word counting program...

Some of that 3075 is points I'm repeating 'cause I'm not getting them addressed. And all some of them need is a yes or no.

But even so, if I respond with the same level of thoroughness, then we're have an exponential growth of text.

I'd predict the precise opposite. If we agree that a release needs to be able to dump six hundred pounds of towline tension with no more than a twenty-five pound pull we can knock that off the to do list and start working on getting a minimum weak link rating out of the way.

...one in a million.

Meaningless.

1. I totally made that up 'cause my point was that I'm not interested in how much of this kinda shitt...

I just kept hitting the brake lever for a few seconds in WTF mode, and the instructor used the barrel release.

...Wallaby gets away with at altitude - you count them as kills anyway 'cause that's what they do when situations are less ideal.

2. USHGA and flight operations have been majorly into crash information suppression since well before I got into the sport. And I can tell you that whenever I'm around commercial flight operations I see and hear about a lot more crap than ever makes it out for public consumption.

3. No way in hell would I put my nephew up on that junk you flew Saturday.

We'd both like to reduce the risk (of course)...

There are risks we can reduce and there are risks we can ONE HUNDRED PERCENT ELIMINATE. I can greatly reduce the risk of a primary bridle wrap by making it stiff and uniform, I can ONE HUNDRED PERCENT ELIMINATE the possibility of a secondary bridle wrap by making too short and stiff to be capable of tying itself in a knot. But Malcolm's gonna make them two to four feet long cause Malcolm's always made them two to four feet long.

...and you have proposed a solution.

This makes it sound like I just landed from Mars with some package emitting gamma rays no part of which anybody's ever heard seen or heard about before. I'm guessing that you still haven't read the existing USHGA stuff and compared it to my revisions 'cause there are huge chunks that are EXACTLY the same. Not everything Malcolm, Matt, Tracy, and Adam do is totally insane. Even tandem instructors eventually figured out that it was a bad idea to have 250 feet of polypro stretched to four hundred pounds and aimed at their faces. So how 'bout we start accepting the stuff that's already on the books to begin with, obviously makes sense, and EVERYBODY'S already doing anyway? Then we can look at the advantages of bent pin releases and determine if they outweigh some of the minor downsides we hear about in the fatality reports.

Besides, I'm not making any decisions that affect anyone but me anyway.

What one person says or does or doesn't say or doesn't do can make the difference between another person living or dying. Saturday Malcolm flew with bent pin releases which no way in hell are in compliance with:

The United States Hang Gliding and Paragliding Association, Inc.
Standard Operating Procedure
12. Rating System
02. Pilot Proficiency System
10. Hang Gliding Aerotow Ratings
-B. Aero Vehicle Requirements

06. A release must be placed at the hang glider end of the tow line within easy reach of the pilot. This release shall be operational with zero tow line force up to twice the rated breaking strength of the weak link.

You decided that it was OK to fly with him anyway, flagrantly violate the regulation as well, and subsidize his behavior because you calculated the odds of you getting killed because of the violation were acceptably low.

"Hey, I don't know about this bent pin / straight controversy but this Tad guy seems to be a real asshole, Malcolm's been doing this for twenty years so it's pretty obvious he must know what it's doing, and, anyway, if it's good enough for Bob..."

Hvan - 2009/01/25

Don't know why the solution is being reworked but I suppose it is human nature.

For some time hang checks have been widely regarded as the way to confirm pilot is connected to glider. It loads the hang strap to 1G which is what we will experience most of the time in-flight. The 1G load during a hang check straightens out the hangstrap and any other lines making it clear if any twists or incorrect attachment exists. If we have inadvertently attached only to the backup strap it will show up during the hang check.

And if anyone says you cannot launch immediately after doing a hang check they are ignorant and best ignored.

Here is a list of 10 pilots who use the 'hang check'. All of them were or are in the top 10 in the world. Most of them are or have been national champions. Some of them are past world champions. One of them is the current world champion. If it is good enough for them...

Steve Moyes
Rick Duncan
Jon Durand Jnr
Attila Bertok
Craig Coomber
Rohan Holtkamp
Gerolf Heinricks
Scott Barret
Dave Seib
Curt Warren

I believe Davis Straub also uses the hang check.

The United States Hang Gliding and Paragliding Association, Inc.
Standard Operating Procedure
12. Rating System
02. Pilot Proficiency System
04. Beginner Hang Gliding Rating (H-1)
-B. Beginner Rating - Required Witnessed Tasks

03. With each flight, demonstrate method(s) of establishing that pilot is hooked in just prior to launch.

The regulation doesn't say do a hang check in the setup area then assume you're hooked in when you're on the front of the ramp five minutes later 'cause that's what a bunch of dumb air jocks do. It says CHECK THE fu**ing CONNECTION JUST PRIOR TO LAUNCH. And the stated intent of that regulation is that that check IS NOT a hang check. But these a**holes lead and kill by example.

So do me a favor don't pretend that having a few beers at the picnic table before heading out to the flight line isn't sending a dangerous message that affects other people. (And yeah, I think I can make a pretty good case that electing to fly with equipment that we know won't work is worse.)

My "stamp of approval" is pretty much meaningless beyond that because the US Hawks is currently so insignificant.

Remember the effect ONE DRAFT LETTER to the FAA from ONE INDIVIDUAL GLIDER PILOT had on the national organization?

Now if you want your views to become both adopted and meaningful...

THESE AREN'T *MY* "VIEWS". These are LAWS of Newtonian physics. Doesn't matter whether people pretend they've got some say about adopting them or not - they've always been meaningful and enforced anyway. And, as far as the death penalty is concerned, Sir Isaac makes Texas look like a bastion of compassion and enlightenment.

I disagree. I think there's a lot that a designer can actually learn from using the system they're designing (or similar systems). Think about things like the stiffness of the pedal, the location of the pedal, the interference of the pedal with other pedals, the size and shape of the pedal. Don't forget the location of the cylinder, the need to add fluid, and the need to bleed fluid.

So far I haven't heard a single thing that requires that the car actually leaves the driveway. Hell, unless it's a power assisted system we needn't even start the engine. REAL GOOD analogy to tow equipment R&D.

But take the same two minds and have one design a braking system based on years of driving and working with cars and the other based on years of driving and working with donkeys. Statistically speaking, which braking system do you think will be better?

The innovations aren't coming from the stupid jock a**holes like Tracy who spend all their time flying, "teaching", and working on gliders and tugs. None of that takes anything in the way of brains and - as far as flying is concerned - you're better off with something off the mediocre shelf.

Thermalling efficiently requires concentration. You hafta stay totally focused on what the lift is doing, your assessment of where the core and edges are, how you should be adjusting your bank angle... It's cool but it gets boring. And the instant you start thinking about anything of any less ephemeral importance you're gonna fall off the side and knock your competition standing down a couple of notches. The guys that tend to be the first five to cross the finish line are virtually never the ones with a fraction of the brains required to understand, design, and improve the sleek machines they're flying.

And then you've got your tug drivers who spend all day going up and down and up and down and up and down and up and down and up and down. Try to find some flight park operators fighting amongst themselves over who's gonna fly the Dragonfly this afternoon. Why do you think they hire people like Bo Hagewood and Jim Rooney?

Ya wanna get really good at flying - you spend all your time flying.

Ya wanna get good at designing - you spend all your time reading, studying math and physics, researching, stealing the best ideas out there, modeling, bench testing, and tweaking.

I didn't say the kid spent all his time driving and working with donkeys. He doesn't. He spends all his time on the village's high speed internet connection learning everything he can about everything and thinking about how he can make things better. And when he does get stuck with driving and working with the donkeys he's still thinking about how he can make things better.

The hang gliding web is virtually nonstop on discussions of problems with releases and weak links and fears and "opinions" about towing. There are NO discussions about, problems with, or opinions about VG systems. That's 'cause towing equipment and policy has always sucked 'cause it's made, slapped on, and determined by a bunch of stupid, Peter Principled, competition, tandem, and tug pilot a**holes and VG systems are solid and designed and built into certified gliders by nerds who spend all of their time reading, studying math and physics, researching, stealing the best ideas out there, modeling, bench testing, and tweaking and virtually NONE of it flying.

So tell me how flying a bent pin release for twenty years is gonna make Malcolm or you any better qualified to evaluate it than this kid in the mud hut who either just looks at it - like I did - or hangs four sacks of fertilizer from it and tries to drop them?

You're willing to dedicate time and energy and thought to what you believe.

This is NOT about what *I* BELIEVE. This is about two plus two equals four - and nobody ever has or ever will beat me on that.

I see my challenge as trying to figure out a way to bring your dedication, energy, and thought to a point where it can be used effectively by more and more pilots.

Zack C

2010/10/15

Speaking of which, while I can fault Tad's approach, I can't fault his logic, nor have I seen anyone here try to refute it. You may not like the messenger, but that is no reason to reject the message.

2010/12/13

I had a very different mindset too back then and trusted the people that made my equipment. Since then I've realized (largely due to this discussion) that while I can certainly consider the advice of others, I can't trust anyone in this sport but myself (and maybe the people at Wills Wing).

1. Do what Zack's doing.

2. Understand/accept that anyone with a bent pin release on his shoulder and/or a single loop of 130 pound test as a weak link on one end of his bridle is an idiot and EVERYTHING that he does or says MUST be held highly suspect.

3. Either accept what I'm saying or blow a hole in it.

4. If you don't have time to try to blow a hole in it accept what I'm saying instead of giving some asshole with a bent pin release on his shoulder the benefit of the doubt - even if he is a real nice guy and you have lotsa fun playing with him in his backyard.

5. Learn the existing USHGA regulations and adhere to them - unless you've got a half decent reason not to - regardless of what the hell everybody else is doing.

6. Start reaching points of consensus on the obvious stuff so we can put that behind us and keep moving forward.

Thanks much for staying in the conversations.
TadEareckson
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 456
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:07 am

Re: Davis Straub's "Oz Report" Conflict of Interest

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:55 pm

TadEareckson wrote:Thanks much for staying in the conversations.

You don't make it easy for me!! :srofl:

I'm leaving for the airport in a few hours to go to San Diego for 10 days. I'll be at the Torrey Fly-In this weekend and at our "Second Sundays at Torrey" Fly-In next weekend. I'll be bringing Pagen/Bryden "Towing Aloft" and I hope I'll know a lot more about the topic when I get back.

As the US Hawks continues to grow, we're going to start needing our own policies and procedures on towing ... and everything else. I hope you'll help us write them. I also hope you can make some recommendations on who else should be part of that team. If there are people in towing that you do respect, then maybe we can encourage them to join us as well. As an alternative, we could incorporate the USHPA regulations by reference. We could take the position that we stand behind those standards, or we could impose exceptions where we feel they're wrong.
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Every human at every point in history has an opportunity to choose courage over cowardice. Look around and you will find that opportunity in your own time.
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 8374
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

PreviousNext
Forum Statistics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests

Options

Return to Hang Gliding General