[Rick Masters]

Realtime 24-hour rainfall accumulation Feather River Basin
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?product=twentyfourhourP&product2=&id2=twentyfourhourP&zoom=9&lat=39.82772693045001&lng=-121.18285424494002&time=MaxT&PNGtypeID=MaxTFcst&cursorReadout=true&showElev=true&useEst=true&obsTempsChgInvert=false&comboLink=Fcst&CNRFC=false&STATES=false&COUNTIES=true&RIVERS=true&LAKES=true&BASINS=false&BURNAREAS1=false&NATIONALPARKS=false&ElevMax=15000&ElevMin=-500&QPEpointMin=0&obsTempspointMax=130&obsTempspointMin=-30&obsTempsChgpointMax=40&obsTempsChgpointMin=-40&SWEpointMin=0&SWEChgMax=20.1&SWEChgMin=-20.1&SDpointMax=400&SDpointMin=0&SDChgMax=100.1&SDChgMin=-100.1&waterTempspointMax=110&waterTempspointMin=25&peakDatesMax=9/30&peakDatesMin=4/1&opacity=36&animateradarrefl=false&animateQPE6hr=false&animateQPF6hr=false&animateQPF24hr=false&animateTempObs6hr=false&animateMaxTFcstMaxT=false&animateMinTFcstMinT=false&animateFzLevel6hrObs=false&animateFzLevel6hrFcst=false&speedradarrefl=-200&speedQPE6hr=-500&speedQPF6hr=-500&speedQPF24hr=-500&speedTempObs6hr=-500&speedMaxTFcstMaxT=-500&speedMinTFcstMinT=-500&speedFzLevel6hrObs=-500&speedFzLevel6hrFcst=-500&cat1=true&cat2=true&cat3=true&cat4=true&cat5=true&cat6=true&cat7=true&precipToggle=precipValues&dataTable=false&mapBG=esriTopo

Just received a dire prediction from a PhD Meteorologist that Oroville Dam Reservoir will fill to over %150 percent capacity, sending half a billion gallons over the emergency spillway. People should evacuate now. My prediction is that the emergency spillway will collapse and the water will eat away the mountainside, draining the reservoir, resulting in the greatest natural disaster California has ever seen. I can provide safe refuge in Bakersfield to one hang glider pilot and his family from the evacuation zone. Get out of there. Rick (six61) 3seven4-oh9six9

[mike]

If there was rebar in the concrete of the normal spillway at Oroville, wouldn't there be rebar remnants visible on the edges of the broken sections?

[Rick Masters]

There was rebar in the main spillway. I saw photos of broken pieces.
I assume it was properly constructed. One of the theories is cavitation at repair points.

When you construct concrete sections with rebar, you have a crew tying the rebar before the pour.
It's pretty obvious that there is no rebar in the emergency spillway patches.
They just pumped concrete over boulders.

I think Victor Davis Hanson nailed it when he pointed out the difference in generations managing the California Water Project.
That means Oroville is only the tip of the iceberg.
The feds seem to do a much better job from conception to follow through.

The reservoir is rising now as the inflow exceeds the outflow. They can theoretically bring the outflow up to 250,000 cu ft/s when the reservoir level gets high enough to fill the gates.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO

I expect it to rise faster and faster as the rain accumulation exceeds 5 inches, which is already happening on the middle and south forks of the Feather River.
Realtime rainfall accumulation in the Feather River Basin over the last 24 hours:
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?product=twentyfourhourP&product2=&id2=twentyfourhourP&zoom=9&lat=39.82772693045001&lng=-121.18285424494002&time=undefined&PNGtypeID=undefined&cursorReadout=true&showElev=true&useEst=true&obsTempsChgInvert=false&comboLink=Fcst&CNRFC=false&STATES=false&COUNTIES=true&RIVERS=true&LAKES=true&BASINS=false&BURNAREAS1=false&NATIONALPARKS=false&ElevMax=15000&ElevMin=-500&QPEpointMin=0&obsTempspointMax=130&obsTempspointMin=-30&obsTempsChgpointMax=40&obsTempsChgpointMin=-40&SWEpointMin=0&SWEChgMax=20.1&SWEChgMin=-20.1&SDpointMax=400&SDpointMin=0&SDChgMax=100.1&SDChgMin=-100.1&waterTempspointMax=110&waterTempspointMin=25&peakDatesMax=9/30&peakDatesMin=4/1&opacity=36&animateradarrefl=false&animateQPE6hr=false&animateQPF6hr=false&animateQPF24hr=false&animateTempObs6hr=false&animateMaxTFcstMaxT=false&animateMinTFcstMinT=false&animateFzLevel6hrObs=false&animateFzLevel6hrFcst=false&speedradarrefl=-200&speedQPE6hr=-500&speedQPF6hr=-500&speedQPF24hr=-500&speedTempObs6hr=-500&speedMaxTFcstMaxT=-500&speedMinTFcstMinT=-500&speedFzLevel6hrObs=-500&speedFzLevel6hrFcst=-500&cat1=true&cat2=true&cat3=true&cat4=true&cat5=true&cat6=true&cat7=true&precipToggle=precipValues&dataTable=false&mapBG=esriTopo

GOES West IR loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

Ventusky forecasts an additional 10 inches of rain in parts of the Feather River Basin over the next week:
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.79;-120.90;7&l=rain-ac&t=20170228/09



KRCR7 Redding California
Live stream television
http://www.krcrtv.com/krcr-news-channel-7-live-stream

[Rick Masters]

Oroville Dam Workers Fired for Posting Spillway Photos to Social Media
POSTED 4:07 PM, FEBRUARY 19, 2017, BY FOX40 WEB DESK
http://fox40.com/2017/02/19/oroville-dam-workers-fired-for-posting-spillway-photos-to-social-media/

[Rick Masters]

Oroville Lake Down 52 Feet, but 9 Upstream Reservoirs to Flood
by CHRISS W. STREET    21 Feb 2017
http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/02/21/oroville-lake-52-feet-9-upstream-reservoirs-flood/
Although the California Department of Water Resources is claiming Oroville Dam is safer because the water level has fallen by 52 feet, that feat was largely accomplished by over-filing 9 upstream reservoirs that are all expected to flood as another Pineapple Express storm-train brings 48 hours of heavy rain through Wednesday.

Ramping up flow down damaged spillway
https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/834066805509337088

[Rick Masters]

[mike]

Atmospheric Rivers for Dummies:



http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/21/14684630/california-atmospheric-river-flood-storm-evacuations-rain-arkstorm?ncid=newsltushpmgnews
Some of this article's links are worth reading.

[Rick Masters]

What happened?
More Floods and Evacuations in California--Plus Wind Gusts Topping 190 MPH
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 6:50 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/more-floods-and-evacuations-in-californiaplus-wind-gusts-topping-190
The atmospheric river that slammed the central third of California on Monday left its mark in multiple ways, including what could end up as the highest reliably recorded wind gusts for the state (see below). Fortunately, the storm underperformed somewhat when it came to rainfall, much like its older sibling that hit southern California last Friday. Rainfall amounts in Bay Area cities on Monday came in well short of the potential suggested by multiple model runs, although both San Francisco (2.16”) and San Jose (1.87”) managed to set rainfall records for the date.

[Rick Masters]

Four to five inches of rain forecast for the Oroville watershed by Tuesday Feb 7 afternoon.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.79;-120.90;7&l=rain-ac&t=20170307/12

February 27, 2017        Bedrock?        Use (ctl shift -)

[Rick Masters]

Dust devils of Mars

Bob Zimmerman https://audioboom.com/posts/5668402-dunes-dust-devils-of-mars-bob-zimmerman-behindtheblack-com
NASA https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6758