Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

[Bob Kuczewski]

All Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths in the United States by Week

  Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control at time of post:
      Web page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
      Download: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/hc4f-j6n ... ormat=true

Week Ending	All Deaths in U.S.	COVID-19 Deaths in U.S.
2/1/2020	56,622	0
2/8/2020	57,184	0
2/15/2020	56,320	0
2/22/2020	55,838	0
2/29/2020	55,128	5
3/7/2020	54,580	20
3/14/2020	52,887	44
3/21/2020	52,573	461
3/28/2020	54,502	2,412
4/4/2020	56,195	6,258
4/11/2020	42,225	5,483
4/18/2020	9,130	568

[Bob Kuczewski]

 
Daily new COVID-19 cases in the United States:

US_Daily_New_Cases_20200421_01.png (33.68 KiB) Viewed 3214 times

Daily new COVID-19 deaths in the United States:

US_Daily_New_Deaths_20200421_01.png (31.7 KiB) Viewed 3214 times

Data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Note that there's a discrepancy between the CDC data above and these graphics from worldometers.info. The CDC data (previous post) shows a peak death count of 6,258 deaths per week. But the peak week from the worldometers graphs is approximately 2,000 deaths per day or approximately 14,000 deaths per week. That's approximately twice what the CDC data shows.

[Bob Kuczewski]

From: https://laist.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus_la_study_antibodies_mortality_rate.php

Study: Roughly 4% Of LA County Adults Have Had Coronavirus
BY PAUL GLICKMAN IN NEWS ON APRIL 20, 2020 6:37 PM

L.A. County Department of Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. (Screenshot via YouTube courtesy L.A. County)

5e96091af4671c00088b3464-eight.jpg (112.32 KiB) Viewed 3214 times

A study that tested 863 adults for antibodies to COVID-19 suggests it's infected more people in L.A. County than the official numbers show.

With the preliminary results released today, researchers estimate that somewhere between 220,000 and 440,000 Angelenos have already been infected. That's a lot more than the 13,816 cases confirmed so far.

With the substantially higher estimate of cases, that suggests the mortality rate for the county is much lower than the current 4.4%, said L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer. She pegged it at closer to .1% or .2%.

"I think if there is a part of this that's hopeful for us, it is that the mortality rate now has dropped a lot," she said.

[Bill Cummings]

When Can the Gov't Lock You in Your House? Quarantines and the Constitution
https://youtu.be/PticwMbKWOo

[brianscharp]

https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation- ... ad951e4492

[Bob Kuczewski]

There's an interesting phylogenetic network analysis at PNAS. Note the original "BAT" host in the lower right corner of the diagram.

Phylogenetic_Network.png (138.31 KiB) Viewed 3181 times

As with most early research on any topic, there are also alternative viewpoints.

[brianscharp]

[Bob Kuczewski]

Brian,

Your video is misleading because it once again ignores population.

20200428_000312.png (132.14 KiB) Viewed 3143 times

Here's a current chart of deaths per million people from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Belgium	622
Spain	503
Italy	446
France	357
UK	311
Netherlands	264
Sweden	225
Ireland	223
Switzerland	192
USA	172

I left out countries with relatively small populations (like San Marino and Andorra). Here's the full table sorted by the column "Deaths / 1M pop":

20200428_000047.png (179 KiB) Viewed 3141 times

[Bob Kuczewski]

I'd like to expand on the misleading nature of Brian's previous video.

Let's take 2 countries from the worldometers.info table above and compare them by deaths per million people. We can use Switzerland and the United States as examples since they're side by side in that table. Switzerland has a death rate of 192 people per million, and the U.S. has a death rate of 172 per million. Here's what those two numbers look like together:

Switzerland	192
USA	172

The U.S. is doing a little better, but most reasonable people would look at those numbers and find them to be similar.

But the United States has about 330 million people, and Switzerland only has about 8.7 million people. Here's what that comparison looks like:

Switzerland	8.7 million
USA	330 million

Now if the two countries have comparable death rates, but one is nearly 40 times larger than the other, then wouldn't you expect the total deaths in the larger country to be about 40 times higher than in the smaller country? Of course you would.

So what purpose would it serve to show the raw death counts or raw case counts together in the following chart from Brian's video (U.S. at the top and Switzerland 5th from the bottom)?

20200428_000312.png (132.14 KiB) Viewed 3137 times

Seriously, what purpose does that chart really serve?

That chart purports to convey information about cases, but it's really a population chart. It shows that the U.S. has about 40 times the population of Switzerland. It might as well be showing the number of noses or arms or toes in each each country. In any of those cases, the U.S. will have about 40 times more than Switzerland.

That video was designed for one purpose: to make the United States look bad. Brian posted it because Brian wants the United States to look bad. Brian, why do you use misleading charts and videos to try to make the United States look bad?

[Bill Cummings]

TRUMP