Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)

[brianscharp]

With a little over 4% of the world's population, the US currently has over 25% of its COVID-19 deaths.

Our death totals, our numbers, per million people, are really very, very strong. We're very proud of the job we've done.

[Bob Kuczewski]

With a little over 4% of the world's population, the US currently has over 25% of its COVID-19 deaths.

With a little over 5.8% of the United States' population, New York state has over 35% of the U.S. COVID-19 deaths.

Where's your ire over that statistic, Brian?   Oh, that's right, Cuomo is a Democrat.

Bill got it exactly right in a single word ... "TRUMP".   I would add "derangement syndrome", but then I'm not as diplomatic as Bill.

[Bob Kuczewski]

The daily cases and deaths seem to have stabilized in the United States:

20200505_Cases.png (31.83 KiB) Viewed 3997 times

20200505_Deaths.png (30.54 KiB) Viewed 3997 times

It's interesting to note the weekly periodicity of both curves.

[Bob Kuczewski]

Some historical perspective from Wikipedia ...

 

Date(s)	Deaths	Location	Event	Disease
165–180 (possibly up to 190)	5–10 million	Roman Empire	Antonine Plague	Unknown, possibly smallpox
541–542	25–100 million (40–50% of population of Europe)	Europe and West Asia	Plague of Justinian	Plague
1346–1353	75–200 million (10–60% of European population)	Europe, Asia and North Africa	Black Death	Plague
1772	2 million+	Persia	Persian Plague	Plague
1855–1860	12 million+ in India and China alone	Worldwide	Third plague pandemic	Bubonic plague
1889–1890	1 million	Worldwide	1889–1890 flu pandemic	Influenza
1915–1926	1.5 million	Worldwide	1915 Encephalitis lethargica pandemic	Encephalitis lethargica
1918–1920	17-100 million	Worldwide	Spanish flu (pandemic)	Influenza A virus subtype H1N1
1918–1922	2.5 million (estimated)	Russia		Typhus
1957–1958	1-4 million	Worldwide	Asian flu	Influenza A virus subtype H2N2
1968–1970	1-4 million	Worldwide	Hong Kong flu	Influenza A virus subtype H3N2
2017–2018	60,000–80,000+	United States	2017–18 United States flu season	Seasonal influenza
2019–present	285,743 (As of 11 May 2020)	Worldwide	COVID-19 pandemic	COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2
1877–1977	500 million	Worldwide		Smallpox
1981–present (data as of 2018)	32 million+ (23.6–43.8 million)	Worldwide	HIV/AIDS pandemic	HIV/AIDS

[Bob Kuczewski]

All Deaths and COVID-19 Deaths in the United States by Week

  Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control at time of post:
      Web page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
      Download: https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/r8kw-7aa ... ormat=true

Week Ending	All Deaths in U.S.	COVID-19 Deaths in U.S.
2/1/2020	57,483	0
2/8/2020	57,953	1
2/15/2020	57,278	0
2/22/2020	57,274	2
2/29/2020	57,550	7
3/7/2020	57,203	29
3/14/2020	55,580	51
3/21/2020	55,660	507
3/28/2020	58,793	2,793
4/4/2020	66,405	8,537
4/11/2020	71,278	13,496
4/18/2020	65,937	13,077
4/25/2020	54,581	8,872
5/2/2020	35,853	3,277
5/9/2020	12,042	846

As the footnotes below indicate, some of these weekly totals (especially in more recent weeks) are not yet complete.

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

* Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

[Bob Kuczewski]

World Data by Country (sorted by deaths per million)

U.S. Data by States (sorted by deaths per million)

U.S. Daily Deaths over Time

20200524_Deaths.png (49.54 KiB) Viewed 3734 times

U.S. Daily Cases over Time

20200524_Cases.png (55.22 KiB) Viewed 3734 times

Data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
 

[Bob Kuczewski]

Current data for the United States:

20200612_Cases.png (45.81 KiB) Viewed 3425 times

20200612_Deaths.png (42.85 KiB) Viewed 3425 times

[brianscharp]

"If you don't test, you don't have any cases."

[Bob Kuczewski]

"If you don't test, you don't have any cases."

That's not true. Thousands of people suddenly showing up with similar symptoms will be classified as "cases" whether there is any testing or not. Without testing, you may show fewer asymptomatic cases, but you will still have symptomatic cases.

Here are the latest charts:

20200621_103649.png (69.07 KiB) Viewed 3313 times

20200621_103540.png (65.2 KiB) Viewed 3313 times

The daily cases has been relatively flat while the daily deaths has continued to decrease. If this were "herd immunity" then the cases should be decreasing also. With increased testing, we would also expect the number of cases to increase. This pattern may be explained by better treatment along with a reduction (or better protection) of those most at risk for death.

[Bob Kuczewski]

Current U.S. Data

Cases_US_20200623_0409.png (63.04 KiB) Viewed 3281 times

Deaths_US_20200623_0411.png (65.15 KiB) Viewed 3281 times